By J. Basil Dannebohm

In 2023, 43% of U.S. voters considered themselves to be political independents, with the remaining voting bloc divided between Republicans and Democrats. In 2026, a Gallup News report tracked self-identified independents at 45%, while CNN polling placed the figure at 47%.

Suffice it to say, political independents will play a major role in determining the outcome of this year’s midterms. But which direction they will lean is still up in the air. Numerous polls show growing frustration with the GOP among independent voters.

However, statistics throw a slight curveball.

“Over time, the increase in the percentage of independents has come more at the expense of Democrats than Republicans, which might be expected since Democrats were previously the largest political group,” said Jeffrey Jones, Senior Editor for Gallup.

A bright spot for Democrats is that Republican gerrymandering efforts might not matter all that much thanks in large part to independent voters.

There is, however, the issue of funding.

As The National News Desk’s Emma Koppelman wrote:

“The Republican National Committee reported $128.5 million cash on hand at the end of June, compared with $16.3 million for the Democratic National Committee. The DNC also reported $18.5 million in debt. Across the three major Republican committees and two affiliated super PACs, Republicans reported $657 million in cash, roughly twice the $334 million held by comparable Democratic groups. President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC had more than $400 million available, giving Republicans an additional sizable war chest heading into November.”

In a statement to Politico, RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre, said:

“Democrats are struggling to scrounge up two cents to keep key seats in play. Meanwhile, Republicans are deploying our massive war chest, and President Trump is barnstorming the country to drive Republicans to the polls and support our candidates. Anonymous bed-wetting strategists have no idea what they’re talking about and unlike them and the Democrats, we’re full steam ahead.”

Not all Democrat pundits are “Anonymous bed-wetting strategists.”

Recently, some of them have sounded the alarm over funding issues. Though I’m neither a Republican nor a Democrat, I pointed out the left’s math problem in an op/ed earlier this year.

Perhaps a funding deficit would explain the lack of any significant Democrat marketing?

In my home state of Kansas, Democratic salience is minimal at best. Candidates on the left want more debates; but let’s face it, very few people tune in. The noticeable lack of television presence is self-sabotage. But funding disadvantages make it practically impossible for Democratic candidates to afford the airwaves.

“I don’t see a blue wave. It’s more like a blue trickle,” said Matt Taglia in an August 2025 interview with Politico’s Danny Nguyen. Taglia is the senior director of Emerson College polling, a non-partisan group that routinely administers political opinion surveys.

I asked a member of DNC leadership how she thought the left would fare this year. Her reply: “Better than we deserve.”

Regarding a poll conducted by Unite the Country, a Democratic super PAC, in July 2025, The Hill’s Amie Parnes said that voters are “first and foremost, concerned about common sense in a political party, something Democrats evidently see as an afterthought, the poll revealed. The party needs to align its messaging with the commonsense rhetoric and policies voters are looking for.”

Policy has been noticeably lacking in the Democratic platform.

“Vote for us because we’re not MAGA” didn’t work in 2024. Has enough changed in two years?

Frankly, I’m not certain.

Luckily, thanks in large part to daily DC dumpster fires, voter amnesia shouldn’t be a contributing factor this year. Given rampant inflation, food recalls, fuel prices, an ongoing war, and skyrocketing mortgage rates, pretending President Trump is on the ballot isn’t difficult.

Still, aside from independents, most voters maintain hyper-partisan loyalty.

On October 17, 2024, I penned a column noting that while I would support Kamala Harris, I didn’t think the Vice President would win. I had a lot of “experts” tell me I had no idea what I was talking about.

This year, just like two years ago, I hope I am mistaken.

Nevertheless, my prediction for the midterms remains consistent with what I wrote on August 7, 2025: The frustrated portion of the populace, hoping for a “blue wave” will likely have to continue their collective lalochezia for the foreseeable future.

To be sure, Democrats will score some significant wins. But as much as I would delight in seeing the crazy train derailed, I fear any gains on the left will only be enough to slow it down a bit.

J. Basil Dannebohm is a columnist, speaker, consultant, and former state legislator who divides his time between Kansas and Washington DC. He is a registered Independent.