LANSING — Some Michigan Republicans are acknowledging, with less than seven weeks before Election Day, that rocky waters appear to lie ahead for their party amid surging gas prices tied to the war in Iran and concerns about GOP voter enthusiasm.

A former state lawmaker running for a safe Republican seat in northern Macomb County said in a Sept. 17 interview that the GOP majority in the state House faces a “huge struggle” to maintain control of the chamber, and that state Senate Republicans have no chance of winning a key suburban Detroit seat.

The comment came as a social media account tied to a county Republican Party chairman in northern Michigan posted that “no one wants to promote candidates” or “to knock doors.” And a former Republican Party congressional district chairman said he believes about 20% of President Donald Trump’s voting base either won’t turn out in November or will vote for Democrats.

“I feel like he moved away from the original ideas of his platform,” said Jon Smith of Hillsdale County, the former chairman for the GOP’s 5th District.

Smith said he disagrees with the war in Iran, which Trump’s administration launched with Israel in February. Smith once considered himself an ardent Trump supporter, but not any longer, he said.

Republicans in the Michigan Legislature face political headwinds this fall from an affordability crisis bearing down on Michigan families as the average price of unleaded gas climbed to $4.89 last week — 52% higher than a year ago — and the average cost of a gallon of diesel fuel surged to $6.67, nearly 80% higher than a year ago, according to AAA Michigan’s fuel price-tracking data.

Former state Rep. Pam Hornberger, R-Chesterfield Township, said voters on the campaign trail are struggling with gas prices and other everyday expenses that they’re linking to Trump’s war in Iran. Hornberger said she doesn’t know that the Middle East war was avoidable, but said the effects are troubling for voters all the same.

“From what I’ve heard, a lot of people that I know say, ‘We were told President Trump wasn’t going to get us into a war. And now look, here we are,'” said Hornberger, who is campaigning for a safe GOP House seat. “… When you make promises on a campaign trail, and then you break them, people remember that.”

Hornberger was selected earlier this month by the Republican executive committees in St. Clair and Macomb counties to serve as the GOP nominee in the Republican-leaning 63rd House District. She will fill the opening left after state Rep. Jay DeBoyer, R-Clay Township, became GOP gubernatorial candidate John James’ running mate.

Democrat Jamie Sonneberger also is running for the seat on Nov. 3.

While she’s running in a seat that DeBoyer easily won by 35 percentage points two years ago with Trump on the ballot, Hornberger expressed reservations about the GOP’s chances of keeping control of the House, where they hold a 58-52 majority.

“I don’t think anyone’s going to easily keep the power in the House,” Hornberger told The Detroit News. “I think it’s a huge struggle right now. I’ve seen polling.

“I hope we can keep majority,” she added, “but I’m not sure that’s going to happen.”

What are the Republican feelings on the ground?

A conservative social media account that is based in the Upper Peninsula and that often promotes Republican candidates, Red Lions Politics, tweeted on Sept. 17 that “the vibes on the ground are the worst I’ve seen in my life.”

“No one wants to promote candidates, no one wants to knock doors, no one wants to do s—,” the account added. “Attendance for any right-wing event is at all time lows anywhere I go.”

Journalist Jake Lahut reported that the account belonged to Jackson Karki, a freshman at Northern Michigan University, who was chairman of the Marquette County Republican Party at the time of the post.

In a message to The News, Karki said, “Even though I have deep concerns, I’m going to keep doing what I can to make sure (Republican U.S. Senate candidate) Mike Rogers and my good friend state Rep. Karl Bohnak get across the finish.”

At a Sept. 19 event in Taylor, Rogers acknowledged that high fuel prices are an issue, which led him to propose suspending state and federal fuel taxes, providing a temporary savings of a combined 70 cents per gallon. He said the president is trying to wrap up the Iran war “pretty soon.”

“That’s the best outcome for certainly Michigander families who are suffering under higher fuel costs, and to me, that’s the best way to do it,” Rogers said in response to a question on gas prices.

Loosening regulations can help get more oil into the market, he said, “which means prices come down as soon as the war is over.”

During an appearance on WKAR-TV’s “Off The Record” show on Sept. 18, Republican former U.S. Rep. Mike Bishop of Oakland County also discussed the political vibe in Michigan. He said a midterm election with a Republican in the White House would normally be a really good year for Democrats.

“I think the big X factor is … whether or not the Democrats can pull it together and they can find a … unified vision of the future,” Bishop said.

State Rep. Mark Tisdel, a third-term Republican lawmaker from Rochester Hills, estimated Democrats have spent about $6.5 million over the last three cycles to try to defeat him. He won his 2024 race by more than 7 percentage points.

Tisdel doesn’t expect Democrats to spend as much against him this time around and, with 14 years under his belt representing Rochester Hills at the city and state level, he is optimistic about his reelection chances.

But it’s difficult to know what will happen with other vulnerable seats in the caucus, he said.

Both Republicans and Democrats are fighting for the majority with the knowledge that geopolitical winds and up-ballot race dynamics could shift state legislative contests on the “turn of a dime,” Tisdel said.

“Once the governor spending and U.S. Senate spending kicks in, it’s going to be tough for people down ballot to secure advertising space or to break through noise at the top of the ballot,” he said, arguing that could give incumbents an advantage.

‘Tough year’ ahead?

Rocky Raczkowski, a former state lawmaker and ex-chairman of the Oakland County Republican Party, questioned whether there’s been enough explanation by Republicans of the war in Iran and what’s happening with gas prices.

Voters tend to want checks and balances, he added. Currently, Republicans control both chambers of the U.S. Congress and the White House.

“It’s a very tough year,” Raczkowski said of the environment.

Hornberger expressed doubts about Republicans’ chances of winning the 12th state Senate District, which includes parts of Macomb, St. Clair and Wayne counties and is considered a critical seat in the GOP’s fight to win back the Senate.

Hornberger lost the 2022 race for that Senate seat to Democrat Kevin Hertel of St. Clair Shores by less than 500 votes — one-third of a percentage point.

This year, Republican John Goldwater of New Baltimore is running to try to unseat Hertel.

Hornberger said Republicans have no chance of winning the district hugging the shores of Lake St. Clair this year.

“Kevin has done everything correctly, I think,” Hornberger said. “I don’t agree with all of his votes, but he’s done a really good job representing the district and making himself available and visible and working with people across the district, from the Grosse Pointes, all the way out to Algonac and Harsens Island.

“We have an unknown person who, I just don’t see that person beating Kevin Hertel,” she added of Goldwater.

Democrats hold a 20-18 majority in the state Senate.

According to Facebook’s political ad archive, the Senate Republican Campaign Committee has been running Facebook ads in six districts: three currently held by Democrats and three currently held by Republicans.

That’s an indication Senate Republicans are expecting to play a fair amount of defense while trying to flip power in the chamber.

Along those lines, state House Republicans had a door-knocking day for volunteers in the district of House Appropriations Chairwoman Ann Bollin, R-Brighton Township, recently, according to a source with knowledge of the House GOP’s campaign schedule. The source spoke on the condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to discuss the door-knocking calendar. Bollin won her 2024 reelection bid by 18 percentage points.

In a text message, Bollin disagreed that the door-knocking day was significant, saying similar events had happened in her district each election cycle.

eleblanc@detroitnews.com

cmauger@detroitnews.com

Staff Writer Kara Berg contributed.

This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: Some Michigan Republicans see a ‘huge struggle’ ahead in fall election

Reporting by Craig Mauger and Beth LeBlanc, The Detroit News / The Detroit News

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